ACHR Earnings Signal (2025-05-12)
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ACHR Earnings Analysis Summary (2025-05-12)
1. Model Report Summaries
Grok/xAI Report
Historical earnings move averaged ±12.7% with a slight 55% bearish bias. Management guidance has been optimistic but credibility is mixed. Pre-earnings IV elevated; expect a 30–40% IV crush. Technicals: RSI at 68.9 (overbought), strong call/put flow at $9.00 and $9.50 strikes. Verdict: Moderately Bullish Recommended: $9.50 call expiring 2025-05-16 at $0.42, 65% confidence.
Claude/Anthropic Report
ACHR is pre-revenue; earnings driven by milestones rather than traditional metrics. Strong technical momentum (above 50/200 MA, RSI 68.9). Implied move ~5–7% (ATM straddle ≈1.13). Call OI outpaces puts; max pain at $8. Verdict: Moderately Bullish Recommended: $9.00 call expiring 2025-05-16 at $0.65, 65% confidence.
Gemini/Google Report
Lacks concrete historical earnings data; infers ±10–20% moves. Price action bullish but overbought; IV high. Implied move ~12.8% (straddle cost $1.13). Calls at $9.00 and $9.50 strikes show high liquidity. Verdict: Moderately Bullish Recommended: $9.00 call expiring 2025-05-16 at $0.65, 65% confidence.