AMZN Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-05-12
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AMZN Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-05-12)
Model Summaries Grok/xAI: Moderately bullish. Price above EMAs, positive daily MACD, but overbought RSI and max pain below current price. Recommends buying the $215 call (0.92) for a 25% target (≈1.15) and 20% stop (≈0.74). Confidence 65%. Claude/Anthropic: Moderately bullish. Strong break above MAs, positive news, falling VIX, high call OI at 210, 215, 220. Recommends the $210 call (2.45) for 50% upside (≈3.70) and 25% stop (≈1.85). Confidence 72%. Gemini/Google: Moderately bullish. Powerful gap-up, daily Bollinger “ride,” supportive news, falling VIX. Suggests the $220 call (0.32) for a 75–100% gain (≈0.56–0.64) with a 50% stop (0.16). Confidence 65%. Llama/Meta: Moderately bullish. Short-term momentum remains strong, but overbought daily RSI. Recommends the $210 call (2.45) for 20% upside (≈2.94) and 10% stop (≈2.20). Confidence 70%. DeepSeek: Moderately bearish. Stock 6% above its upper Bollinger Band, overbought RSI, max pain at $190. Advises buying the $200 put (0.59) for 100% gain (1.18) and exit if price breaks above $208.86. Confidence 70%. Agreement & Disagreement Agreement: Four of five models are moderately bullish, citing strong technical momentum, supportive news (tariff relief, China trade, new robots), and falling VIX. All note overbought daily RSI and max pain below spot as a caution. Disagreement: Strike selection and degree of aggressiveness vary—from near-the-money ($210, $215) to deep OTM ($220). One model (DeepSeek) flips bearish, emphasizing extreme Bollinger band deviation and mean reversion. Profit-target and stop-loss guidelines differ. Conclusion & Trade Recommendation Overall market direction consensus: Moderately Bullish. Recommended trade: Buy a single-leg naked call. • Instrument: AMZN weekly options expiring 2025-05-16 • Strike: $215 (3.05% OTM) • Premium: $0.92 (good liquidity with 13k OI, 36k volume) • Entry timing: At open • Profit target: $1.38 (50% gain) • Stop loss: $0.74 (20% loss) Confidence level: 70% Key risks and considerations: • Overbought daily RSI (73.7) risks a pullback or consolidation • Max pain at $190 could exert downward pressure into expiry • High theta decay in last week—manage time risk • Potential resistance at $211.66–$212.77 • Macro news or VIX reversal could quickly erode premium