CARR Swing Options Trade Plan 2025-05-21
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CARR Swing Analysis Summary (2025-05-21)
Model Summaries Grok/xAI: Moderately bullish; short-term pullback within long-term uptrend; MACD positive; recommends buying the 6/20 $77.50 call at $0.55 with 50% profit target and 25% stop. Confidence 75%. Claude/Anthropic: Moderately bullish; pullback healthy, strong weekly trend, heavy open interest at $72.50; recommends buying the 6/20 $75.00 call at $1.10 with +50%/+100% profit targets and 32% stop. Confidence 75%. Llama/Meta: Mixed signals but leans moderately bullish; daily MACD bullish, weekly uptrend intact; suggests buying the 6/20 $72.50 call at $2.15, targeting $3.50 and stopping at $1.50. Confidence 80%. Gemini/Google: Moderately bullish; support at $72 holding, positive weekly MACD, falling VIX; favors the 6/20 $77.50 call at $0.55 with PT1 $0.82, PT2 $1.10, stop $0.27. Confidence 70%. DeepSeek: Moderately bullish but sees intraday bearish risk; heavy call OI at $77.50; if forced, buy 6/20 $77.50 call at $0.55, target $0.82/$1.10, stop at $0.30. Confidence 68%, ultimately no trade recommendation below 70%. Agreements and Disagreements Agreement: All models are moderately bullish and prefer buying calls; key long-term trend is bullish; entry timing at market open; stop and profit-taking rules defined. Disagreement: Strike choice varies ($72.50, $75.00, $77.50); some models require higher confidence for trade (DeepSeek holds off); profit-target levels and stop-loss percentages differ; Claude targets $1.65/$2.20, Llama $3.50/$1.50, others use $0.82/$1.10/$0.27. Conclusion and Trade Recommendation Overall Direction: Moderately bullish. Recommended Trade: Buy a single-leg naked call. • Instrument: CARR • Strike: $77.50 (7.5% OTM, strong liquidity) • Expiry: 2025-06-20 • Entry Timing: At market open if CARR holds above ~$72.00. • Entry Price: $0.55 (ask) • Profit Target: $0.83 (~+50%) • Stop Loss: $0.41 (~–25%) • Size: 1 contract Confidence Level: 75% Key Risks and Considerations: • Short-term bearish momentum on intraday charts; a failure to hold $72 could drive option toward worthless. • Max pain at $70 may exert downward pull if support breaks. • Low premium and time decay risk; strike requires ~7.5% rally.