DG Earnings Signal (2025-06-02)

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DG Earnings Analysis Summary (2025-06-02)

# DG Earnings Options Trade Plan

## 1. Historical Earnings Analysis - Average post-earnings move: ~8.5% (ATM straddle cost $8.25 / $97.22). - Directional bias: Mixed – 4 of last 8 quarters beat, 4 missed; market tends to sell the news. - Guidance history: Conservative management, occasional upside surprises but margin pressure noted. - IV crush pattern: Weekly options IV typically falls 30–40% after earnings.

## 2. Current Setup Evaluation - Price action: $97.22, above 20 DMA ($95.36), 50 DMA ($91.80) and 200 DMA ($84.07); RSI 66.5 (near overbought). - Volume: 2.53 M vs. 3.63 M (10-day avg) – muted pre-earnings positioning. - Options chain skew: - High OI calls at $100 (2 181), $107 (2 102); high OI puts at $95 (1 775), $90 (1 219). - Recent heavy flow in OTM puts ($88–$86 strikes). - Current IV vs. typical: Elevated into earnings, implying ~8.5% move. - Put/Call OI ratio near ATM: 0.64 (bullish), but recent P/C volume ~2.0 (bearish).