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FDX Earnings Signal (2025-06-24)

FDX Earnings Signal (2025-06-24)

Henry Zhang's avatar
Henry Zhang
Jun 24, 2025
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FDX Earnings Signal (2025-06-24)
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FDX Earnings Analysis Summary (2025-06-24)

Comprehensive FDX Earnings Options Trade Plan

As an elite quant options trader specializing in earnings strategies, I've analyzed the provided FDX market data, integrated the various model reports, and arrived at actionable insights that adhere strictly to your trading guidelines.

1. Historical Earnings Analysis

Earnings Move Magnitude: Although exact historical data is missing, it's generally expected that logistics companies, including FedEx (FDX), exhibit earnings moves typically within a 4-7% range based on standard volatility. Post-Earnings Reaction Bias: FDX has experienced mixed outcomes historically; however, a cautious sentiment prevails due to persuasive news indicating potential downside risks in earnings reports. Guidance History and Management: Recent headlines suggest uncertainty, potentially leading to bearish surprises, but no specific guidance history was available to quantify management credibility or predict performance. Options Premiums and IV Crush: The analysis suggests that options premiums will likely experience significant decay post-earnings (estimated 30-50% drop).

2. Current Setup Evaluation

Price Action/Volume Trends: FDX's 20-day moving average is at $221.18 with an RSI reading of 66.10, indicating an overbought condition and potential for a pullback prior to earnings. The volume is lower than average, suggesting a lack of strong buying interest, which could lead to surprise moves. Options Chain Activity: The chain displayed unusual put activity, especially with a heavy concentration of volume in lower strike puts ($200.00 put – 3,009 volume), indicating bearish sentiment among investors. Implied Volatility Comparison: The current IV appears elevated in relation to historical levels, suggesting traders are hedging against potential large moves. Put/Call Ratio and Options Skew: The put/call ratio indicates an overall bearish sentiment in the marketplace, evident from the higher open interest in puts.

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