GOOG Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-05-07
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GOOG Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-05-07)
Model Summaries Grok/xAI: Moderately bearish. Daily and 5-minute charts show bearish momentum with price below EMAs, bearish MACD crossover, RSI neutral to oversold. Elevated VIX and negative Apple news reinforce downside. Recommends buying the $148 put at $0.94. Confidence 75%. Claude/Anthropic: Moderately bearish. Price under all key MAs, sharp RSI decline, negative MACD. Apple AI search news a near-term headwind. Heavy put positioning. Suggests $146 put at $0.58. Confidence 65%. Gemini/Google: Strongly bearish. Daily breakdown below Bollinger middle band, fresh daily MACD sell signal, negative Apple news, rising VIX. Suggests $145 put at $0.45–$0.48 for a short-term play. Confidence 80%. DeepSeek: Moderately bearish. Price well below EMAs, approaching lower Bollinger band, RSI near oversold. Recommends $147 put at $0.74, targeting a move to $148 support. Confidence 65%. Llama/Meta: Moderately bearish. Price below MAs and middle Bollinger band, bearish MACD on both timeframes. Favors $148 put at $0.94 for risk/reward. Confidence 70%. Agreement and Disagreement Agreement: All models lean bearish, driven by technical breakdown (daily RSI, MACD, EMAs), elevated VIX, and negative Apple-Google news. All favor weekly puts. Disagreement: Strike and premium choice varies ($148, $147, $146, $145), reflecting a trade-off between higher liquidity/depth at farther strikes and lower premium at nearer strikes. Confidence scores range 65–80%. Conclusion and Trade Recommendation Overall market direction consensus: Bearish (moderate to strong). Recommended trade: Buy a single-leg, naked put. • Instrument: GOOG weekly options expiring 2025-05-09 • Strike: $145 Put at $0.45 ask (within $0.30–$0.60 preferred premium range) • Entry: At market open • Profit target: $0.75 (≈+66%) • Stop-loss: $0.22 (≈–50%) Strategy: Weekly put, naked single-leg Entry Timing: Enter at the open of the next trading session Confidence Level: 75% Key Risks and Considerations: • Short-term oversold bounce (daily RSI near 37) could pin price or trigger a pop • Max pain at $165 suggests some expiration suction, albeit unlikely given current momentum • Time decay accelerates against the position if GOOG remains stagnant • Any positive macro news or reversal in VIX could blunt downside