GOOGL Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-04-07
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GOOGL Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-04-07)
Below is a synthesized analysis of the reports and data along with a recommendation and trade details.
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SUMMARY OF EACH MODEL’S KEY POINTS
• Grok/xAI noted that although GOOGL’s recent price action shows some very short‐term recovery (touching near the 10‐min EMA), the daily chart is firmly in a downtrend with oversold RSI readings and high volatility (VIX 48.38). They highlighted that the options open interest is heaviest in the call side around the $155–$157.50 strikes and recommended a bearish naked put (e.g. $141 put) to play the dominant trend.
• DeepSeek emphasized technical conflicts. While the price is extremely oversold and testing key support, the premiums on both calls and puts seem to demand unrealistic moves. They concluded “no trade” for now until a clearer directional signal emerges.
• Claude/Anthropic confirmed a strong bearish bias on the daily timeframe. With prices far below key moving averages, an oversold RSI, and the high VIX environment, they recommended a long put (a $142 put at an ask of $3.05) to take advantage of the downside momentum while being mindful of a possible short-term bounce.
• Gemini/Google provided an alternate view. Their multi-timeframe review acknowledged the daily bearish structure but also noted that oversold conditions and the “max pain” at $155 might trigger a contrarian, short-term bounce. On that basis they suggested a naked call play—buying the $160 call at $0.59—to catch a potential rally if prices reverse.
• Llama/Meta echoed the bearish daily setup and oversold conditions, favoring a put-based trade. They proposed buying a $145 put (ask $4.05) due to its balance between risk and liquidity even though the premium is higher than the “ideal” range.
────────────────────────────── 2. AREAS OF AGREEMENT AND DISAGREEMENT
• Agreement: – All models observe that the daily chart is strongly bearish with prices well below the key EMAs. – There is consensus that GOOGL is oversold (daily RSI around 27–28) and that volatility is extremely high. – Most models note that the options market (especially the heavy open interest in calls near $155) reflects a structural bias.