JD Earnings Signal (2025-05-12)
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JD Earnings Analysis Summary (2025-05-12)
Earnings Options Trade Analysis for JD.com (JD)
1. Historical Earnings Analysis
Mean absolute post-earnings move ~6.4%, median ~5.9% Positive surprise rate ~55%, negative ~45% Guidance: 45% positive, 35% neutral, 20% negative Typical IV crush ~30%, pre-earnings IV elevated (75th percentile vs. history)
2. Current Setup Evaluation
Price $33.86 (below 50-day MA of $38.59, near 20-day MA of $34.17), RSI 66.3 Volume 19 M vs. 10-day avg 9.5 M (1.22×), showing pre-earnings interest Options: heavy call OI at $37.00 (4,253) and put OI at $34.00 (10,220) Call/put skew mildly bullish, put/call ratio ~0.65 IV rank ~0.75, expect ~30% crush after earnings