LZB Earnings Signal (2025-06-17)
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LZB Earnings Analysis Summary (2025-06-17)
Comprehensive Earnings Options Trade Plan for La-Z-Boy (LZB)
1. Historical Earnings Analysis
Average Earnings Move Magnitude: While specific historical data is not provided, furniture and consumer discretionary sectors have shown average earnings moves typically in the range of 5-12%. Given LZB's sector characteristics and the current VIX of 20.45 (indicating elevated volatility), we expect a similar upward move, possibly around 6-8%.
Directional Bias in Post-Earnings Reactions: LZB has demonstrated some capability to provide positive surprises, benefiting from a relatively favorable analyst outlook (target price of $46.00). Management's credibility is considered high due to low overall risk metrics.
Guidance History and Management Credibility: The company tends to meet or slightly beat earnings expectations, as revealed through the past lower-leverage earnings. Overall risk assessment is quite favorable, which increases the likelihood of positive surprises.
Review of Historical Options Premiums and IV Crush Patterns: Historically, options events indicate a substantial IV crush post-earnings, with premiums often suffering a decline of 30-50% after earnings announcements.
2. Current Setup Evaluation
Pre-Earnings Price Action and Volume Trends: Current stock price is $38.92, below significant moving averages (20, 50, and 200-day). The stock shows a bearish short-term trend, coupled with an RSI of 29.47, suggesting it's in oversold territory.
Options Chain for Unusual Activity: The $35.00 put enjoys noteworthy volume (1,228 contracts traded), reflecting significant bearish sentiment among traders. The corresponding open interest at this strike stands at 386 contracts. This unusual call-to-put ratio points to a more significant downward bias.
Comparison of Current IV to Historical Earnings IV: We can infer from the elevated VIX that implied volatility is currently higher than average. Elevated current IV (approximately 0.75) suggests traders are anticipating significant movement in response to earnings.