NFLX Swing Options Trade Plan 2025-05-15
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NFLX Swing Analysis Summary (2025-05-15)
Model Summaries Grok/xAI: Strong bullish trend across timeframes (price > EMAs, MACD+, falling VIX). Recommends buying the $1185 call at open, profit‐target ~15–20%, stop if underlying < $1160. Confidence 75%. Claude/Anthropic: Moderately bullish, key resistance at $1202.89. Recommends the May 30 $1200 call at mid‐$20.15, profit‐target +30%, stop‐loss −15%, exit by May 22. Confidence 75%. DeepSeek: Acknowledges strong uptrend but overbought RSI and expensive premiums. Recommends NO TRADE (65% confidence) until a pullback or breakout occurs. Llama/Meta: Moderately bullish, price above moving averages but overbought. Recommends May 30 $1200 call at $20.75, profit‐target +25%, stop‐loss −15%, hold ≤10 days. Confidence 75%. Gemini/Google: Powerful bullish momentum but overbought and near resistance. Recommends May 30 $1250 call (~$7.35 mid), PT1 +25%, PT2 +50%, SL at −30%, hold 5–10 days. Confidence 70%. Agreement and Disagreement Agreement: All models are bullish to moderately bullish on NFLX, citing price above key EMAs, positive MACD, and supportive VIX. They favor buying calls with May 30 expiry. Disagreement: Strike selection varies ($1185 vs. $1200 vs. $1250) and risk appetite differs (some accept high premiums >$20, others prefer lower‐cost OTM strikes). DeepSeek alone advises no trade at this time due to overbought signals and high cost. Conclusion and Trade Recommendation Overall Market Direction: Moderately Bullish Recommended Trade: Buy one May 30, 2025 $1200 call • Rationale: High liquidity (1,192 OI at strike), aligns with majority of models, balances premium vs. leverage. • Entry Timing: At market open • Entry Price: Midpoint $20.15 • Profit Target: $26.20 (≈+30%) • Stop Loss: $17.13 (≈−15%) • Size: 1 contract Confidence Level: 0.75 Key Risks and Considerations: • Multi‐timeframe RSI overbought—risk of short‐term pullback. • Approaching resistance at $1187.80 and $1202.89—may stall or reverse. • High option premium—needs a >4–5% move in NFLX to break even. • Max pain at $1105 well below current price (background pin risk if trend reverses).