NVDA Swing Options Trade Plan 2025-05-23
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NVDA Swing Analysis Summary (2025-05-23)
Model Summaries Grok/xAI: Moderately bullish. Price is between short- and mid-term EMAs, positive MACD, RSI neutral. Recommends buying the June 6 $135 call at $4.80, targeting a 50% gain to $7.20, stop-loss at $3.36. Confidence 75%. Claude/Anthropic: Moderately bullish. Daily and weekly charts bullish, balanced sentiment. Recommends the June 6 $134 call at $5.20, targeting $7.80 (50% gain) and $10.40 (100% gain), stop-loss at $3.90. Confidence 75%. Llama/Meta: Moderately bullish. Technicals supportive but volatility elevated. Recommends the June 6 $132 call at $6.20, 20% target to $7.44, stop if NVDA closes below $128. Confidence 72%. Gemini/Google: Moderately bearish. Rising VIX, max pain at $128. Recommends June 6 $120 put at $1.98, targets $2.47 and $2.97, stop-loss at $1.48. Confidence 70%. DeepSeek: Moderately bearish. Emphasizes max pain and waning momentum. Recommends June 6 $130 put at approx. $5.20, 50% profit target at $7.80, stop-loss on break above $134.25. Confidence 72%. Agreements and Disagreements Agreement: Short-term technicals show consolidation around $131–132, elevated VIX implies caution, max pain at $128 is a focal point. Most see a balanced risk/reward over the next 5–7 days. Disagreement: Directional bias splits—three models lean moderately bullish (Grok, Claude, Llama) while two lean moderately bearish (Gemini, DeepSeek). Strike selection varies from $132 to $135 for calls and $120 to $130 for puts. Conclusion Market Direction Consensus: Moderately bullish tilt by majority, but with elevated volatility and max pain risk. Recommended Trade: Buy a single‐leg naked call. • Instrument: NVDA June 6, 2025 $134 strike call • Premium: $5.20 (midpoint of $5.15–$5.25) • Expiration: Two-week swing, 14 DTE • Entry: Market open at $5.20 limit order • Profit Target: $7.80 (50% gain) • Stop Loss: $3.90 (25% loss) Strategy: Buy single-leg naked calls only Entry Timing: At market open Confidence: 75% Key Risks and Considerations: • A stronger-than-expected pullback could drive price toward max pain at $128 and accelerate theta decay. • Rising VIX may compress call premiums if implied vol drops. • Watch for break below daily EMA support (~$130.60) to reconsider stance.