NVDA Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-03-17
NVDA Weekly Options Trade Plan (Expiry: 2025-03-21)
1. Technical Analysis Synthesis
Key Observations:
Price Positioning:
5-minute chart: Price ($121.61) sits above all EMAs (10/50/200) with upward-sloping moving averages. Recent closes broke above Bollinger Band upper bounds, but RSI (81.35) signals extreme overbought conditions short-term. Daily chart: Price reclaimed the 200-day EMA ($120.97) and is trending above the rising 10-day EMA ($116.76). However, it remains below the 50-day EMA ($126.62), a critical resistance level. Momentum & Volatility:
Daily RSI (52.16) is neutral but trending upward from oversold levels. Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show price breaking above the middle band, signaling bullish momentum. Support/Resistance:
Immediate resistance at $122.8 (5-minute) and $127.84 (daily). Max pain at $125.00 (2.79% above current price).
2. Market Sentiment Integration
VIX Context: Falling VIX (21.77 → 25.09 5-day avg) suggests declining fear, supportive of bullish moves. News Impact: Positive catalysts (NVIDIA AI collaborations, GTC 2025 anticipation) dominate headlines. Options Sentiment: High open interest in $120/$122 calls and $120/$122 puts creates a tug-of-war, but max pain at $125 favors upside gravitation.
3. Directional Determination
Market Direction: Moderately Bullish (70% confidence) Rationale:
Technical breakout above 200-day EMA + bullish daily RSI momentum. Falling VIX and bullish news catalysts align with upside potential. Max pain theory suggests price drift toward $125.00.
4. Options Strategy Selection
Trade: Buy $125.00 Call (not explicitly listed but implied by max pain and strategic necessity) Rationale: