NVDA Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-05-20
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NVDA Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-05-20)
Model Summaries Grok/xAI: Moderately bullish; short-term momentum strong but daily RSI overbought; recommends buying the $142 weekly call at $0.61 with a 50% profit target and 50% stop loss, confidence 65%. Claude/Anthropic: Moderately bullish; strong uptrend but max pain at $126 warns of pullback; suggests the $142 weekly call at $0.61, profit targets at 50–100% gains, 30% stop loss, confidence 65%. Gemini/Google: Strongly bullish on short-term M5 breakout despite overbought daily RSI; favor the $142 weekly call at $0.61, target 100% ROI, 50% stop loss, exit by EOD, confidence 75%. DeepSeek: Moderately bullish; momentum vs. max pain conflict; buys the $142 weekly call at $0.61, 100% profit target, 50% stop loss, hold ≤2 days, confidence 65%. Llama/Meta: Moderately bullish; overbought but trend intact; instead recommends the $140 weekly call at $0.99 with 50% profit target and 2% stock-price stop, confidence 70%. Areas of Agreement and Disagreement Agreement: • Overall bullish bias for NVDA into week’s expiry • Strong short-term momentum supported by M5 EMA, MACD cross, rising RSI • Daily RSI overbought warns of potential reversal • Max pain at $126 far below spot, creating some theta/go-to-mean risk • Preferred strategy: single-leg naked weekly calls Disagreement: • Strike selection: four models choose $142; one model picks $140 • Holding period: some hold until week’s end, others seek same-day exits Conclusion and Trade Recommendation Overall Market Direction: Bullish for the week, driven by strong momentum and call-side positioning. Recommended Trade: Buy NVDA weekly $142 call (expiry 2025-05-23) at market open. • Strategy: Single-leg naked call on weekly expiry • Entry Timing: At open, limit order at $0.61 • Profit Target: 100% gain (exit at ~$1.22) • Stop Loss: 50% loss (exit at ~$0.30) • Size: 1 contract Confidence Level: 70% Key Risks and Considerations: • Overbought daily RSI (80+) may trigger abrupt pullbacks • Theta decay accelerates late in the week, so quick exits are preferred • Max pain gravitational pull toward $126 could pressure upside if momentum stalls • Monitor VIX spikes (>20) or breaches below $134.50 support as exit triggers