PAYX Earnings Signal (2025-06-23)
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PAYX Earnings Analysis Summary (2025-06-23)
Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) Earnings Options Trade Plan
Comprehensive Analysis
1. Historical Earnings Analysis
Average Earnings Move: Based on historical performance and sector behavior, PAYX tends to exhibit an average post-earnings move of about 4-6%. Given a current price of $149.12, this suggests an expected move of around $6-9. Directional Bias: Historically, PAYX has shown a tendency to react positively to earnings approximately 60-70% of the time, although recent analyses indicate mixed guidance credibility. Guidance & Credibility: PAYX has a strong management track record with low multiple risk metrics (e.g., Audit Risk of 1/10), indicating reasonable reliability in earnings guidance. IV and Crush Patterns: Options reveal significant IV pre-earnings followed by notable IV crush averaging 20-30% after earnings.
2. Current Setup Evaluation
Price Action: As of the current evaluation, PAYX trades at $149.12, under its 20-day MA ($155.54) and 50-day MA ($151.57), indicating recent bearish momentum. The current RSI of 27.52 suggests the stock is oversold and may be poised for a correction or rebound. Options Chain Evaluation: Notable push towards put options, specifically with $150 puts obtaining high open interest (3,530). The call options at the $160 strike show significant interest as well, with a premium of $1.25. The premium reflects current volatility and suggests that market sentiment may have been excessively bearish.