RNW Earnings Signal (2025-06-13)
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RNW Earnings Analysis Summary (2025-06-13)
Below is our synthesized analysis of the various model reports combined with the provided options chain data. Our goal is to rapidly grow a small account by taking a relatively low‐cost, single–leg earnings play with RNW. We have verified that the ONLY strikes and premiums used are those explicitly shown in the “OPTIONS DATA” section. In this case, the available strikes are as follows:
• A $7.00 call option at an ask of $0.30 • A $7.00 put option at an ask of $0.50 • A $6.00 call option at an ask of $0.95
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Historical Earnings Analysis ────────────────────────────
• The Grok/xAI report calculated an average earnings move of about 5.07% based on eight quarters (with both positive and negative moves noted). In contrast, the Gemini report’s breakdown of the $7.00 straddle (call + put = $0.80 on a $6.80 stock) implies an expected move of roughly 11.76%. • Directional bias has been mixed historically—earnings beats occur frequently, though guidance remains conservative. Management has a credible record in meeting EPS targets but revenue has sometimes lagged. • Options premiums generally have significant IV crush with reductions of 40–50% post–earnings, which is a critical risk factor for any trade.
──────────────────────────── 2. Current Setup Evaluation ────────────────────────────
• RNW is trading at $6.80, just above its 50-day MA ($6.49) and near technical support, while the 20-day moving average ($6.85) suggests only slight bullishness. • The options chain reveals unusual activity in the $7.00 call – notably 577 contracts in volume and open interest of 3,074. This supports a moderately bullish view even though the put/call ratio is not extremely skewed. • Implied volatility (IV) is still elevated as earnings approach (with VIX at 18.02 and a rising trend) so an IV crush is expected if the earnings report is muted. • Technical levels and recent news (including the strategic asset divestiture and previous EPS beat) favor a slightly positive outcome but caution is warranted if revenue guidance is weak.