SMCI Earnings Signal (2025-05-06)

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SMCI Earnings Analysis Summary (2025-05-06)

# Comprehensive Synthesis of SMCI Earnings Options Reports

## 1. Model Summaries

### Grok/xAI Report - **Historical Bias**: Slightly bearish post-earnings (60% negative). - **Expected Move**: ~9.8%; typical IV crush ~25%. - **Current Setup**: Trading below 20-day MA, neutral RSI; balanced put/call flow but elevated put interest. - **Directional View**: Moderately Bearish. - **Trade**: Buy 2025-05-09 $31 put @ $0.97. - **Risk/Reward**: Stop-loss 50% ($0.485), profit target 2× ($1.94). - **Confidence**: 65%.

### Claude/Anthropic Report - **Valuation**: Deeply discounted (P/E 14.4, forward P/E 7.8). - **Technical**: Well below 50/200-day MAs; neutral RSI. - **Directional View**: Moderately Bullish (mean reversion, earnings beat potential). - **Trade**: Buy 2025-05-09 $35.50 call @ $1.00. - **Risk/Reward**: Stop-loss 50% ($0.50), profit target 150% ($2.50). - **Confidence**: 65%.

### Llama/Meta Report - **Options Flow**: Unusual call volume at $35.50; balanced skew. - **Directional View**: Moderately Bullish. - **Trade**: Buy 2025-05-09 $35.50 call @ $1.00. - **Risk/Reward**: Stop-loss $0.25, profit target $1.50. - **Confidence**: 80%.