SPX 0DTE Options Trade Plan 2025-05-06
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SPX 0DTE Analysis Summary (2025-05-06)
Model Summaries Grok/xAI: Moderately bearish bias. 1-minute overbought RSI suggests a pullback; 5-minute and daily charts show mixed momentum. Recommends buying a $5615 put (outside ideal premium range) with profit target around $14.16 and 50% stop-loss. Confidence 70%. Claude/Anthropic: Moderately bullish bias. Price recovering on 5-minute, VIX falling and max pain near $5630. Recommends buying the $5685 call at $0.95, targeting 2×–3× returns, 58% max loss stop. Confidence 68%. DeepSeek: Moderately bullish bias (65% confidence). Multi-timeframe EMAs supportive, falling VIX, proximity to max pain. Recommends buying the $5685 call @ $0.95, aiming for 50–75% gain, 50% stop, exit by 11:30 ET. Gemini/Google: Moderately bearish bias (65% confidence). Gap down from prior close, failure to hold M1 highs, elevated VIX, heavy OTM put volume. Recommends buying the $5540 put @ $0.75, 100–140% profit targets, 50% stop, exit if SPX > 5640. Llama/Meta: Moderately bullish bias (70% confidence). Short-term momentum bullish, daily chart mixed. Recommends buying the $5630 call @ $12.40, 20% profit target, 10% stop, hold until close. Areas of Agreement and Disagreement Agreement: • Mixed/mild directional bias—no model is extremely one-sided. • Elevated VIX and max-pain near $5630 are key inputs. • Liquidity considerations favor strikes in the 5685–5695 call range or 5540–5545 puts. Disagreement: • Directional bias splits: two models bearish (Grok, Gemini), three bullish (Claude, DeepSeek, Llama). • Strike selection varies widely: Grok (put 5615), Gemini (put 5540), others (call 5685 or $5630). • Risk parameters differ on profit targets (20%–200%) and stop-loss rules (10%–58%). Conclusion Overall Market Direction Consensus: Mixed, leaning modestly bullish given three models support a call strategy versus two supporting puts. Recommended Trade: Buy SPX 0DTE 5700 call • Rationale: Fits user’s ideal premium range ($0.55), strong liquidity (6,096 vol, 2,066 OI), aligns with the majority of call-favoring models and max-pain pull-toward $5630–5700. • Strike: 5700 (1.38% OTM) • Premium: $0.55 (target entry ~$0.60) • Expiration: 2025-05-06 (0DTE) • Entry Timing: At market open • Profit Target: $0.83 (+50%) • Stop Loss: $0.28 (−50%) Confidence Level: 68% Key Risks and Considerations: • Morning pullback may extend, invalidating bullish thesis. • Gamma theta decay accelerates late in the day. • News‐driven volatility could spike VIX and push price away from strike.