SPY Credit Spread Options Trade Plan 2025-06-12

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SPY Spread Options Analysis Summary (2025-06-12)

Below is a consolidated analysis based on the models’ inputs:

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Comprehensive Summary of Each Model’s Key Points

• GK Report  – Technicals on the 5‐min chart show SPY at 603.75 trading above the 10-, 50-, and 200-EMAs with rising momentum and an RSI near 65.  – The daily chart also shows SPY above its moving averages with a slightly overbought RSI (≈69.5), while Bollinger Bands and short-term MACD support bullishness.  – Despite moderately bullish technicals, rising VIX and mixed news (a surge in Oracle, mild inflation vs. geopolitical tensions) add caution.  – Trade Recommended: A bull put spread (sell 602 put, buy 597 put) to capitalize on moderately bullish bias if SPY stays above 602 at open.

• LM Report  – Confirms that SPY’s short-term technicals (price above key EMAs, RSI near 65) suggest strength but also caution as the daily RSI nears overbought levels and Bollinger Bands indicate potential pullback.  – The report places greater emphasis on negative factors – notably overbought conditions and geopolitical concerns (Israel-Iran tension) – pointing to a moderately bearish bias.  – Trade Recommended: A bear call spread (sell 606 call, buy 608 call) for a limited-credit, short-term position to benefit if SPY pulls back.

• GM Report  – While the immediate (M5) price action remains bullish, GM flags significant downside risk from acute geopolitical headlines (Israel strikes Iran) plus a rising VIX and negative MACD divergence on the daily chart.  – Given the conflicting signals (short-term bullish price spike against major bearish catalysts and max pain below the current price), GM recommends no trade for the session.