TMF Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-06-22

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TMF Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-06-22)

Based on the comprehensive analysis of TMF's weekly options trading data, along with insights from various model reports, here’s the synthesized actionable trade recommendation.

Summary of Key Points:

Current Market Conditions: TMF is trading around $37.37, with a max pain level at $37.00 for the expiration date of June 27, 2025. The sentiment is moderately bearish due to mixed technical indicators and underlying economic news from the Fed.

Technical Signals:

5-Minute Chart: Indicates bearish signals; below key moving averages and MACD showing bearish histogram. Daily Chart: Displays a bullish slope, complicating the short-term bearish bias. However, resistance at $37.55 suggests a potential drop. RSI is approaching oversold but is not extreme, which may lead to a short-term bounce rather than a sustained recovery. Market Sentiment: The current VIX suggests elevated volatility, which, combined with bearish options positioning (high OI for $37.00 puts), supports a downward price movement.