TSM Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-04-03
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TSM Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-04-03)
Below is a consolidated multi-model analysis for TSM’s weekly options. In our review we summarize each model’s main points, note where they agree or differ, and then conclude with a clear trade recommendation (if accepted) along with robust risk considerations.
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SUMMARY OF EACH MODEL
• Gemini/Google Report – Technical: Price at $157.38 is trading below key moving averages and near the lower Bollinger bands. RSI readings in both 5‑min (32.9) and daily (29.4) charts are oversold, yet the overall picture is bearish. – Sentiment: Elevated volatility (VIX at 27.17) and max pain at $170.00 point to maintained downside pressure. – Option Trade: Recommends buying a naked put with a $150 strike for a premium of ~$0.45; entry at market open with a 50% premium gain target and a stop-loss at roughly 50% loss (about $0.22).
• Grok/xAI Report – Technical: Notes that price is below all EMAs and near or below the lower Bollinger band on both the M5 and daily charts. Although the oversold RSI implies the potential for a bounce, the broader view is moderately bearish. – Sentiment: Mixed news (Intel joint venture possibility) adds uncertainty but overall supports caution. – Option Trade: Recommends buying a put option at a $152.50 strike priced around ~$0.81; with a 50% gain target (to ~ $1.215) and a 30% stop-loss (around ~$0.57).
• Claude/Anthropic Report – Technical: Emphasizes the price’s position below all key EMAs and near oversold levels (RSI ~32.9 on short-term, ~29.4 on daily charts), with the price gently supported near $156.02 but overall in a downward channel. – Sentiment: Elevated volatility and strong put activity are highlighted along with negative news impacts. – Option Trade: Also recommends a put trade at a $152.50 strike for roughly a $0.81 premium, with a profit target set at doubling the premium and a stop-down at about 50% loss.
• Llama/Meta Report – Technical: Similar findings with price trading below short‐term and long‐term EMAs and RSI in oversold territory; the key support near $154.23 does not negate the overall downtrend. – Sentiment: Confirms that an uncertain news backdrop (joint venture talks, etc.) and elevated volatility lend weight to a bearish view. – Option Trade: Recommends buying a put at a $152.50 strike and ~$0.81 premium (even if that premium is slightly above the ideal range), with a 50% profit target and stop‑loss to trim exposure if the premium halves.
• DeepSeek Report – Although no detailed text is provided, by context DeepSeek is assumed to reflect similar observations: price action below key averages, oversold but bearish bias, and emphasis on elevated volatility. DeepSeek would likely agree with a bearish put trade strategy with similar risk management.