UNH Swing Options Trade Plan 2025-05-15
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UNH Swing Analysis Summary (2025-05-15)
Model Summaries Grok/xAI: Sees deeply oversold daily/weekly conditions (RSI oversold, price near lower Bollinger), but short‐term bullish momentum on 15-min. Max pain at $310 suggests a bounce. Recommends buying the $275 call (May 30), targeting a 20% premium gain, stop at 25% loss, hold 5 days. Confidence 75%. Claude/Anthropic: Also notes extreme oversold across timeframes and capitulation volume. VIX falling and max pain at $310 point to a relief rally. Recommends buying the $280 call (May 30) for 66% upside if UNH reclaims $294, stop at $9.00 premium. Confidence 75%. DeepSeek: Contrarian view—strong bearish momentum, no base, negative news; heavy put OI. Recommends buying the $265 put (May 30), targeting 50–70% gain, stop‐loss if UNH > $275. Confidence 80%. Llama/Meta: Mixed signals—bearish trend but oversold. Prefers to sit out given only 60% confidence, no clear directional edge. Gemini/Google: Emphasizes extreme oversold (daily RSI 7) and 15-min bullish MACD crossover. Recommends buying the $285 call (May 30) at ~$12.50, target ~$17.50–20.00, stop ~$8.75. Confidence 70%. Agreements and Disagreements Agreement: Four of five models see relief-rally potential from extreme oversold levels and max pain theory. All but DeepSeek favor call buys or no trade. Disagreement: DeepSeek strongly bearish (put buy), Llama neutral (no trade). Strike and premium levels vary: $275, $280, $285 calls. Conclusion Market Direction Consensus: Moderately Bullish for a short-term bounce. Recommended Trade: Buy a single-leg, naked call. • Instrument: UNH May 30, 2025 $280 Call • Premium: $14.45 (ask) • Rationale: Balances proximity to current price, liquidity, and upside toward max pain. • Profit Target: $20.23 (≈40% premium gain) • Stop-Loss: $10.12 (≈30% premium loss) • Entry Timing: At market open on next session • Size: 1 contract Confidence Level: 70% Key Risks and Considerations: • Fundamental/legal news may drive further declines. • High implied volatility – expensive options and rapid theta decay. • Counter-trend trade against a strong downtrend. • If UNH breaks below recent supports (~$260), bounce thesis likely fails.