UNH Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-05-21
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UNH Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-05-21)
Model Summaries Grok/xAI: Moderately bearish. UNH is below short- and mid-term EMAs, daily MACD is negative, and the max-pain level at $300 suggests downward pressure. Recommends buying the $295 put (premium $0.84), profit target 50% ($1.26), stop-loss if UNH > $310, enter at open. Confidence 70%. Claude/Anthropic: Moderately bearish. Daily chart shows strong downtrend, max pain at $300, significant put volume at $290–$297.50. Recommends buying the $295 put (premium $0.84), profit target 50% ($1.26), stop-loss at $0.59, close by Thursday EOD. Confidence 65%. Llama/Meta: Moderately bearish. Price below key EMAs, MACD bearish, RSI recovering from oversold. Favors the $297.50 put (premium $0.98), profit target 50% of premium, stop-loss at premium $0.60, enter at open. Confidence 70%. DeepSeek: Moderately bearish. Persistent downtrend, max pain at $300, high OI at the $300 put. Recommends buying the $300 put (premium ~$1.19), profit target 50–100%, stop-loss if UNH > $310, enter at open. Confidence 70%. Agreement and Disagreement Agreement: All four models see a moderately bearish bias and favor buying weekly puts into max-pain levels. Entry timing is market open. Profit targets around +50% and stop-loss near 30% of premium. Disagreement: Choice of strike—models split between $295, $297.50, and $300. Premium and liquidity trade-offs drive the differences. Some models cap exit at Wednesday EOD; others hold to expiration. Conclusion Overall Direction: Moderately Bearish Recommended Trade: Buy a single-leg naked weekly put • Underlying: UNH • Strike: $295.00 • Expiry: 2025-05-23 • Entry Timing: At market open • Entry Price: $0.84 (ask) • Profit Target: $1.26 (≈50% gain) • Stop-Loss: $0.59 (≈30% loss) • Size: 1 contract Confidence Level: 70% Key Risks and Considerations: • Sharp oversold bounce could invalidate bearish thesis. • A strong market-wide rally or positive catalyst beyond the DOJ news could push UNH higher. • Low-premium options decay and liquidity dynamics can amplify slippage. • Price gravitation toward max pain can be offset by short-covering or interventions.